Startup Intelligence  ·  May 2026

America's Biggest Itches Nobody Is Scratching

I read a news story about Microsoft. I could not stop thinking. So I went looking for the pattern.
A
Anjali Baheti

A few days ago I read that Microsoft quietly cancelled thousands of AI coding licences, the same tool their engineers loved using. Not because the tools did not work. Because they worked too well.

Engineers used them constantly. The bill got out of hand. Uber, around the same time, burned through their entire 2026 AI budget in four months. Their whole year's budget. Gone before summer.

Breaking, May 2026
The numbers that made me stop
When even Microsoft cannot afford its own AI tools, something is broken
Uber's 2026 AI budget
$3.4B
Gone in 4 months
Per-engineer AI cost
$2K/mo
At peak (Uber)
Jobs where AI is viable
23%
MIT, 2024
Tech layoffs in 2026
92K+
~100 companies
Fortune · TheStreet · TechRadar, May 2026
Microsoft cancels Claude Code licences, not because engineers disliked it, but because they used it too much
Cutoff: June 30, 2026. Engineers redirected to GitHub Copilot CLI. The decision was financial, not technical. Nvidia's VP put it bluntly: "For my team, the cost of compute is now far beyond the cost of the employees."
Sources: Fortune, TheStreet, TechRadar, Layoffs.fyi, May 2026

That stopped me. We have been told AI is the great equaliser, the thing that lets a 3-person startup move like a 300-person company. But if Microsoft, with a $3 trillion market cap, cannot sustain the cost of AI at scale, what does that mean for everyone else?

I sat with that for a while. And the more I thought about it, the more it felt less like an AI story and more like a symptom of something bigger.


Then I Remembered the J-Curve

I have been going through some startup masterclasses recently, and one concept kept coming back to me: the J-Curve. The idea that most startups do not die because their idea was bad. They die in the dip, the valley between early momentum and sustainable scale, where costs spike, complexity multiplies, and "this is working" quietly turns into "we cannot keep this up."

The Microsoft AI story is a perfect J-Curve moment. The tool worked. Adoption shot up. Costs followed. And right when things should have stabilised, the math fell apart.

Framework
The J-Curve: Where Startups Go to Die
Value vs. time: the valley between early excitement and sustainable scale
Momentum / perceived value Operational cost
J-Curve: value dips into the valley of death around months 6-8, then recovers.
Phase 1
Early excitement
Product works. Team is energised. Costs feel manageable.
Phase 2: The Gap
Valley of death
Costs spike. Complexity multiplies. Most startups stall here.
Phase 3
Sustainable scale
Unit economics work. The J finally takes shape.

And I got curious. Is this just an AI thing? Or is the same valley showing up everywhere (healthcare, immigration, SMB operations), where the gap between "this exists" and "this actually works at scale" is where companies quietly go to die?

So I went looking.


How I Looked, and What I Borrowed

I did not want to just collect complaints. Anyone with a Reddit account can do that. I wanted a way to actually rank these problems. Which ones were urgent, big, and genuinely unsolved versus which ones just felt loud?.

That was when I came across a framework called Fix My Itch, something Razorpay built brilliantly for India. They scraped Reddit, X, and forums for real problems, then scored each one on severity, frequency, and market size. The "Itch Score." It is such a clean idea, and as far as I can tell, nobody has applied it to the US market yet.

So I borrowed it. Three inputs, simple math:

Gap Score = TAM + Frequency + Whitespace
Adapted from Razorpay's Fix My Itch · Max score: 30
TAM (1–10): How big is the market if solved? Frequency (1–10): How often is this complained about? Whitespace (1–10): How weak are existing solutions?

Frequency comes from Reddit threads, Hacker News, G2 reviews, LinkedIn, wherever people actually vent. Whitespace asks: even if a solution technically exists, does it leave most of the friction in place?


5 Gaps That Stood Out

I went through dozens. These five had the highest Gap Scores. Weirdly, they all started looking like variations of the same underlying problem. Click any card to see the breakdown.


What I Noticed Across All Five

Here is the thing that surprised me most: none of these gaps are about missing technology. The AI tools exist. The healthcare mandate exists. The immigration system exists. The enterprise platforms exist.

What is missing in every case is the layer that makes the existing thing usable, at the right price, at the right scale, for the right kind of company. Microsoft has AI but no way to control what it costs. Doctors have software but no way to escape the paperwork. Startups have tools but the ones built for them assume they are either enormous or tiny, never the in-between.

Every gap I found sits in the same valley, the one between "this exists" and "this actually works for me."

That is the J-Curve at industry scale. And it is where I think the next interesting wave of companies will get built.


Where I Am Going With This

This is just one afternoon of curiosity turned into something. I went down a rabbit hole, found a framework I loved, applied it to a different market, and noticed a pattern I genuinely did not expect.

I would love to keep doing this. Go deeper on each industry, refine the scoring, talk to people actually living inside these gaps. If anything here resonated, or if I got something wrong, or if there is a gap I missed entirely. I would really love to hear it.

What is an itch you cannot stop scratching?

If you are a founder, builder, or just someone who noticed a pattern I missed, come find me. Always up for a conversation.

Find me on LinkedIn →
Startups AI Product Market Research Entrepreneurship Healthcare SMB Gap Analysis